Why Uganda should avoid a revolution

There has been talk of using force to get rid of NRM government which has disappointed Ugandans and neighbors that had counted on Museveni to champion peace, security, stability, prosperity and good neighborly relations. It was hoped that through multiparty democracy, NRM would be unseated through free and fair elections but that hasn’t happened because of electoral fraud and suppression of opposition parties.

New developments regarding formation of Tutsi empire using Uganda as a base and the recent decision by Uganda and Rwanda delegates to terminate colonial borders has raised eyebrows and fear that Uganda could disappear as we have known it. In addition the prime minister’s statement that peasants should be replaced by large scale farmers without indicating where he would put them has created tremendous anxiety.

Regarding elimination of national borders, it is possible that Uganda and Rwanda parliaments which are basically rubber stamp institutions could be instructed by Presidents Museveni and Kagame to pass legislation for merging Uganda and Rwanda into a single state and erase national borders through legislation. These developments should be taken seriously and prevent them from happening because once they have happened it is very difficult if not impossible to reverse them peacefully.

Hope coming out of Uganda’s despair

Major changes including in political, economic and social fields more often than not take place in the wake of crises. The plague or Black Death in Europe contributed to the end of feudalism. The devastation of European economies and societies during the Second World War contributed to the birth of the European Union. In his Zurich speech of 1946, Winston Churchill proposed a “United States of Europe” so that Europeans can “dwell in peace, in safety and in freedom”. Although Europeans supported the creation of a European federation, they resented being rushed or forced into it.

And progress was slow and some disappointments were experienced like when Jean Monnet “the Father of a United Europe” resigned as President of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) because it was not followed by further steps towards integration. Out of this frustration, a committee of experts was formed to study the situation and make suggestions on the way forward.

Background to and impact of structural adjustment programs

This article has been written in response to popular demand. The mid-1970s marked the end of the global economic golden age since the end of World War II which was dominated by state intervention primarily to reduce unemployment and maintain a reasonable level of inflation. The government raised enough revenue to cover welfare expenses.

From the mid-1970s the global economy experienced slow growth, high unemployment and rising inflation (stagflation). The oil crises of 1973/4 and 1979 made matters worse leading to a recession in the early 1980s. Instead of applying fiscal and monetary policies such as raising taxes or cutting expenditure which are politically sensitive, governments resorted to borrowing made easy by abundant petro-dollars at low but flexible interest rates or simply printed more money causing high inflation and external debts.

By early 1980s many countries had accumulated so much debt that they could not service. Private lenders pulled back and demanded repayment of the debts. In order to control inflation, interest rates were raised making it even more difficult to borrow on the international markets. Third World countries resorted to borrowing from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to repay the debts. IMF and the Bank would provide assistance with conditions attached designed to address domestic economic distortions considered to be the main cause of the problem.