If Marcos could go, so can Museveni

Some Ugandans either because they work for Museveni or are not familiar with lessons of political history dismiss the possibility that Ugandans can remove Museveni from power because he enjoys solid international, military and religious support. But this is exactly what former president of the Philippines, the late Ferdinand Marcos enjoyed. What drove Marcos out of power is exactly what has been accumulating in Uganda.

Ferdinand Marcos a firmly unshakeable dictator was elected president in 1965 and reelected for the second and final term in 1969 because of presidential two term limits. Marcos and his wife Imelda did not come from wealthy families. However, Marcos had credentials to do an excellent job as leader of his country. At the time he was elected president his compatriots thought he was a war hero (it turned out to be false) with a good academic record as a lawyer and had been jailed for political reasons. He had also served as an elected member of the House of Representatives and Senate rising to the position of Senate president.

In Uganda religious leaders can make a difference

Our doctrine is that Ugandans will liberate themselves from Museveni’s military dictatorship and the NRM failed system via a wide range of instruments including mass media and collaboration with religious leaders. The international community is called upon to level the playing field as Ugandans embark on a journey to freedom through peaceful demonstrations which are an integral part of our human rights including the right to self-determination and crafting a governance system that accommodates specific interests. That the European Union and Commonwealth observer teams concluded that the February 18, 2011 presidential and parliamentary elections were ‘not free and fair’ is a commendable beginning.

From time immemorial religious leaders have played a vital role (and some of them paid a heavy price) in easing the suffering of people meted out by their leaders. For example, John Ball a follower of John Wycliffe contributed tremendously through speeches and writing (e.g. “All men by Nature Were Created Alike”) in support of English peasants that had suffered exploitation. The peasants revolted in 1381 resulted in the abolition of the poll tax imposed in 1380 which sparked the great revolt.

Uganda’s transition from speeches to action

Greetings fellow Ugandans and friends

History repeats itself and in Uganda it is about to happen.

In the 1980 Uganda elections, Paul Ssemogerere and his DP were expected to win general elections. Yoweri Museveni warned the late Milton Obote and his UPC that if they rig and win, Museveni would wage a guerrilla war and remove the government from power.

Obote won and formed Obote II government in December 1980. True to his word Museveni waged a very destructive guerrilla war. In July 1985 Okello and a section of the national army removed Obote and his government from power. In January 1986, Museveni entered Kampala and formed NRM government.

While in the bush, Museveni also waged a vicious attack on Obote’s structural adjustment program for its contribution to poverty, unemployment, hunger, poor quality education and health care services.

While in power Museveni has repeated exactly what he accused Obote of. He has rigged elections against Paul Ssemogerere in 1996, Kiiza Besigye in 2001, 2006 and 2011. Museveni also launched a structural adjustment program which has aggravated poverty, unemployment, hunger, poor quality education and health care services and environmental degradation.

Why ethnic tensions are intensifying in southwest Uganda

My career has enabled me to interact with many people from and outside Uganda and to hear many stories (many of them distorted) about who is who and who is doing well and not so well economically in Uganda. There is a general feeling that all south westerners are doing well at the expense of other Ugandans since Museveni came to power in 1986. In other words they think that all south westerners are Bahororo, Bahima, Batutsi and Banyamulenge (all represented in Uganda). This is the group of Nilotic Bantu speakers led by Museveni that has made tremendous progress in wealth accumulation. The other group of Bantu speakers known by the epithet of Bairu (slaves) or commoners in south west Uganda is extremely poor because of historical exploitation by the Nilotic Bantu speaking group since the two groups interacted about four hundred years ago.

I know some readers are not comfortable about this Bahororo and Bairu diatribe. I do not like it either. Actually it was dying out until Museveni came to power and re-established hostilities by suppressing Bairu through the implementation of structural adjustment that has pushed many back into poverty. Museveni is a divisive leader that seems to enjoy the suffering of others. This may explain why he has refused to support school lunches for kids from poor families but he has money for funerals – how else can you understand it.

Rujumbura was never part of short-lived Mpororo kingdom

In the beginning

Bantu people are believed to have left Nigeria/Cameroon border on massive and gradual migration about the time of Christ (R. W. July 1998). They entered the great lakes region about 2-3000 years ago. They entered Uganda through south west and/ or western corner. So they are the indigenous occupants of Rujumbura County (remnants of Bambuti are believed by some researchers to be Bantu people who adapted to a forest environment).

Bantu people brought with them short horn cattle, goats, sheep, poultry, crops and knowledge of iron technology (R. O. Collins 2006 & R. Oliver and G. Mathew vol. I 1963). They settled in good areas endowed with fertile and grazing land and iron ore. With iron technology (axes, machetes and hoes), they cleared land and grew a wide range of crops including bananas, grazed animals and manufactured a wide range of products based on resource endowment. They supplemented cultivated foodstuffs with plentiful wild game and fish, fruits and vegetables.

Principal characteristics of Bahororo people

A teacher determines the popularity of a topic by the number of questions asked, comments made and clarifications sought during and after the class. I have written over four hundred articles on Uganda and other states in the Great Lakes region. These articles are posted on www.kashambuzi.com which I urge you to visit free of charge. The article on Bahororo has been the most popular in terms of questions asked, clarifications sought and comments made. Some readers including Ahmed Katerega have asked me to write more on the subject. My focus has been and hopefully will continue to be about the behavior and not the individuals as such. Since Bahororo have been in power for 25 years try and compare what I am writing with what you are observing on the ground and let us compare notes as and when appropriate. I come from Rujumbura where Bantu/Bairu people have interacted with Nilotic Bahororo people for 210 years – since 1800.

What Museveni says to Ugandans, leaves out his real goals

A careful reading of Museveni statements and observation of what is happening on the ground show a mismatch. This could not be an accident, it was planned. Museveni never discloses his real intentions. Having realized that the truth was in what Museveni omitted from his statements, I wrote an article a few days ago urging Ugandans to begin to think dialectically: to look for the truth in that which is not said. That is Ugandans should not take Museveni statements at face value.

Museveni studied carefully the minds and aspirations of Ugandans and discovered that what they want is different from what he wants. He chose a two-pronged strategy: make statements about what Ugandans want to hear and implement what he wants to achieve, hence the mismatch noted above. After 25 years of NRM rule, Ugandans see a country in a mess. Not so for Museveni. Keeping Uganda messy, Ugandans drinking too much alcohol and praying the whole night or watching pornography movies etc is helping him to advance his goal towards total domination of the country. Bahororo dominated Bantu/Bairu in southwest Uganda by impoverishing and marginalizing them. This method has been extended to the whole country. That is why you do not hear Museveni expressing regret that children are dropping out of school, Uganda youth are unemployed and poverty has remained unacceptably high. All these adverse developments are in line with what he wants: impoverish and weaken Ugandans and govern them with minimum difficulty. Below are illustrations of contrasts regarding what he preaches and implements.

Highlights of the population debate

1. The population debate has been with us for a very long time dating as far back as classical Greece and Rome. It has evolved overtime and now includes population explosion and implosion as well as women’s reproductive health and rights.

2. At the global level population dynamics is a function of changes in births and deaths. However, at the national level (e.g. Uganda) total population is a function of births – deaths + in-migrants – out-migrants.

3. The world population change has gone through three phases: the first phase occurred in the Neolithic Revolution caused by shifts from nomadic hunter/gatherer communities to crop production and animal domestication making more food available to feed more mouths in settled communities and reduced deaths; the second phase from the Industrial Revolution that started around 1750. Improved transport systems and cold storage facilities connected food surplus to deficit regions and public health including general hygiene, safe drinking water and sanitation that lowered mortality; the third phase began in the late 1950s and is characterized by medical and technological advances that too lowered death rate. Thus, all these phases from the first through the third have one thing in common: they saved lives and increased life expectancy. Thus, during these three phases the increase in population was not because couples were having more babies. It is because people were living longer due to a reduction in mortality.

NRM ‘revolution’ has reversed Uganda’s 90 years achievements

When the National Resistance Movement (NRM) came to power in 1986, it promised fundamental changes in Uganda’s political economy and society. Ugandans assumed fundamental change meant a quick recovery from the political, economic and social difficulties they had experienced since 1971 to a path of sustained growth, sustainable and transformational development. The launch of the ten-point program gave Ugandans hope. Unfortunately the ten point program never materialized. Instead, since 1990, Uganda has experienced a reversal of its earlier achievements including land ownership, economic transformation, ecological conservation and human capital formation. No one imagined that NRM’s fundamental change meant reversal of achievements Uganda had realized in the 90 years between 1894 and 1985. The reversal has affected the following areas:

The British colonial authorities left Uganda’s land firmly in the hands of Uganda peasants. This decision was taken after intensive discussions between London and Entebbe. British authorities further realized that adequate food and nutrition security was a human right that must be observed. They developed fisheries to provide affordable source of protein for low income families.

From ten-point program to evangelism

President Museveni’s address to the NRM special organs conference at Namboole on Tuesday September 7, 2010 portrayed him more like a religious preacher to a flock in disarray and adviser to a government that has done a poor job than a president who has been in power continuously for 25 years. It is not surprising given the unprecedented chaotic performance in the recent (September 2010) NRM primaries for 2011 elections and the overall economic, social and ecological decline. The promised industrial and social revolutions and poverty eradication are nowhere in sight.

In Uganda, politics under the NRM is about power: how to get it, monopolize it and use it to become filthy rich relying on family members, relatives and friends. Knowing full well that democracy would not secure him the presidency, Museveni chose the military option and became president in 1986 and has no plans to retire soon. The army and other security forces are used more to silence dissent against his regime than to keep peace and stability as Museveni and his foreign backers would want us to believe. The demonstration by unemployed and unarmed citizens in Kampala was met with disproportional military force resulting in many deaths and injuries.