NRM government is about to make another policy mistake

The introduction of structural adjustment program (SAP) in Uganda in 1981 coincided with the launch of a guerrilla war by the military wing of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) against an elected government of Uganda. Political economy analysts in the NRM carefully studied the impact of SAP conditionality in Uganda and Ghana. They concluded that the SAP model sponsored by the IMF and the World Bank was not suitable for Uganda. They drew up an alternative political economy model of a mixed economy based on private and public partnership. The model was published in 1985 as a ten-point program. It was a consensus blue print that was carefully prepared by Ugandans in consultation with a wide range of stakeholders. Thus, it was a home grown program.

Impose political conditionality on Uganda and lose a reliable partner

Western powers who created Museveni and depend on him for advancing their economic and political interests in Africa do not know how to handle him and Museveni knows it. The economic and political quagmire unfolding in Uganda has become an embarrassment to donors who praised Uganda sky high in the international media and international conferences as an economic and political success story in a continent mired in poverty, hunger, illiteracy, disease, conflicts, refugees and IDPs. Increasing diseases of poverty, the harassment of political opponents including whipping them in public and accumulation of political, economic and military power by Museven’s family and those close to him have betrayed donors’ quick conclusions about Uganda’s success stories and Museveni’s unparalleled quality of leadership in Uganda and beyond. Because donors needed Museveni they overlooked Uganda’s failures including adherence to IMF recommendations such as the maintenance of a balanced budget. IMF cut off assistance to Obote II regime for failure to adhere to the maintenance of a balanced budget.

Uganda will develop only when donors relax their conditionality

Pre-colonial communities that later formed Uganda produced and traded in local and regional markets and consumed a wide range of products based on local endowments. Economic activities included a variety of crop cultivation, herding livestock, fishing, salt extraction and manufacturing enterprises especially those producing iron, wooden, skin and bark products.

Besides a strategic motive to control the source of the Nile, Uganda was colonized to produce raw materials for British industries and a market for British manufactured products. Lord Lugard stated clearly that the growing population in Europe and industrial expansion led to a desire for new markets for manufactured products, tropical raw materials for British industry and foodstuffs to supplement decreased home production and feed increasing British population (A. Seidman 1972). Consequently, Uganda was reduced to a producer and exporter of raw materials and an importer of manufactured products.

Economic discussions by Ugandans before independence emphasized manufacturing enterprises to transform a colonial economy and society, create jobs and add value to exports. However, the British had a different plan. As independence became inevitable, the British government invited the World Bank to evaluate development possibilities for Uganda. The World Bank’s principal recommendation was that Uganda should accelerate and diversify agricultural production primarily for export purposes (A. Seidman 1972).