I stated in a July 2010 article on the difficulty of applying Malthus essay to Uganda’s population that population growth becomes a major issue in Uganda’s development discourse when the economy is in deep trouble. Amin ordered doctors to reduce population growth through contraception when the economy had run dry after all the stock from the expelled Asians had been used up. In Uganda today (July 2010) the economy is fast drying up and scapegoats are being created to justify the socio-environmental problems including rapid urban population growth, slums and wetland destruction. This is happening in large part because for over twenty years the NRM government has relied on market forces and laissez faire (let alone). Reporting on population ‘explosion’ has become an exercise in propaganda blaming Uganda citizens for over-breeding but remaining silent about massive migrations into Uganda and food exports since the beginning of the 20th century. What is happening in Uganda will not correct itself. Government intervention has become unavoidable to correct the imperfections of the invisible hand of market forces and laissez faire capitalism.
The idea of state intervention has a long history. The French economist Jean-Baptiste Say had written that the capitalist system could never break down because it was self-correcting. He formulated Say’s Law which stated that supply creates its own demand, meaning that there would never be a general overproduction or glut of un-bought products. Malthus disagreed stressing that a glut was bound to happen especially if consumers had insufficient money. To remove the glut, Malthus suggested that the state should intervene, through extra spending on the economy, in the distribution of income and employment creation that would in turn raise effective demand and eliminate the glut. He also suggested the employment of the poor in road construction and other public works.
The idea of state intervention was picked up by the British economist John Maynard Keynes during the Great Depression of the inter-war period in the 20th century. Post World War II governments in the developed world intervened in the economy. The Keynesian model worked and created a ‘golden era’ of economic growth, stability and full employment until the early 1970s when stagflation (stagnant economic growth, rising unemployment and inflation all happening together) rendered the Keynesian model unsuitable. It was dealt a heavy blow and temporarily replaced by monetarism (a preference for inflation control over full employment). The global economic recession that began in 2008 has brought back the Keynesian model (the return of the master) of state intervention to correct the imperfections of market forces and laissez faire.
In Uganda where the effects of market failure are everywhere for anyone to see such as the diseases of poverty, urban slums and environmental degradation, the NRM government has remained reluctant to intervene. In desperation it came up in April 2010 with a five year development plan which for all intents and purposes is a stop gap measure hoping that the economy will correct itself. That is why no institutional or staff changes have occurred in the ministry of finance, planning and economic development and the central bank which have overall responsibility for Uganda’s economy.
Recently there was an announcement of a few officials who are retiring but no major ministerial and central bank shake up has taken place similar to what happened when the government launched the stabilization and structural adjustment program in mid-1980s. To buy time, Ugandans – mostly novices in population matters – are publishing stories condemning Ugandan citizens for over-breeding but not mentioning massive migrants into the country and food exports which are contributing to the problems being experienced. With unemployment, poverty, hunger, school drop outs, crime, domestic violence, human sacrifice and biological diversity loss all rising, the state has no choice but to intervene in the economy using competent Ugandans.
Blaming population growth and climate change – the two-so-called ‘Acts of God’ beyond state control – will not solve the deep rooted problems Uganda is facing right now.