With pressure mounting against Museveni regime, groups are coming up with scenarios about a successor government. Here are some of them for consideration.
1. Regarding leadership: there are those who argue that any leader is better than Museveni. But this group seems to have forgotten or conveniently neglected that we have gone through this without improving the political, economic and social conditions. When a group of Ugandans didn’t like Obote, they said anybody was better than him. We got Amin. A larger group said anybody was better than Amin. In quick succession we got Lule, then Binaisa and ultimately Obote. A group of Ugandans swore to unseat Obote and argued that anybody was better than Obote. We got Okello and within six months a section of Uganda didn’t like him and we got Museveni. Now many are saying anybody is better than Museveni. Given this history what makes this group insist anybody is better than Museveni? To look for a better alternative we need to establish a profile of the next leader (I prefer a presidential team rather than one leader who concentrates power and becomes a dictator) first and then embark on a search.
2. There are those led by Niringiye and implicitly supported by Sejusa and others in the wings arguing that there is no NRM as such. It is Museveni and once Museveni is gone, Ugandans can pick anybody to lead. However, if NRM does not exist, then why is Amama Mbabazi arguing that he is still the Secretary General of NRM? NRM has just concluded its convention in preparation for 2016 elections. How do we describe those who participated in the convention beyond Museveni and his family? This school of thought is probably made up of a group of people in the NRM scattered at home and abroad bent on continuing to govern Uganda and are quietly without trace of record working together to continue with the 50 year master plan.
3. There are Ugandans especially with a military record insisting that military force is the only viable alternative to unseat the NRM government because Uganda is not ready for People Power as we witnessed in the Philippines against Marcos regime; in Iran against the Shah regime; in Tunisia against Ali regime and most recently in Burkina Faso against Compaore. They feel that for Uganda an exception should be made to overthrow the government by military means and form a transitional government led by a current soldier or one with military background. They have ruled out the alternative scenario of soldiers joining hands with civilian population to change the regime by non-violent methods.
4. There are Ugandans who are arguing that we should not waste valuable time discussing a program of action for post-NRM regime. Instead we should focus on changing the regime first and then begin discussion about the next government. The group also insists that it should take on board anybody without bothering to investigate their history and character because for them what is common is regime change. But history has shown unambiguously that when groups with opposed views come together for the sole purpose of removing the regime, once that task is accomplished, the different groups turn against one another to form the next government and a civil war is the result. We have seen that in the French, Mexican, Russian and Ethiopian Revolutions to mention a few. Closer to home we witnessed this in Uganda following the formation of the post-Amin regime in 1979. When Ugandans from home and in the Diaspora met in The Hague in November 2013, it was decided that plans for regime change must be discussed together with plans for governing the country the morning after the regime is removed by non-violent methods. The Hague Process for Peace, Security and Development in Uganda has presented the roadmap to regime change and what to do the morning after. It has been widely circulated.
All of us have ambitions and elements of individualism and selfishness but when we carry them too far ahead of the nation and community we risk destroying the country and her people. Uganda has been like that since independence. Winner-take-all and concentration of power in the hands of one leader since 1966 have proven disastrous. If we don’t change course we shall continue to sink deeper into darkness politically, economically and socially. We should recast short-term goals and the urge to revenge because this path is unsustainable. We must instead embrace tolerance, equitable sharing, reconciliation and liberty with justice.
All Ugandans have a duty to participate in this debate. If you sit on the fence waiting to jump into the winning camp you may end up at the bottom of the pyramid – if you are lucky. Chances are you may end up in exile or worse if you remain passive especially the youth.