The job of researchers and reporters is to collect and present facts as background information for policy makers. Right now Uganda is experiencing tremendous demographic and political tremors whose causes need analysis, sorting and appropriate action before the tremors develop into full-blown earthquakes.
It would be naïve and unwise to ignore emerging emotional and controversial debates on the role of refugees and illegal immigrants in Uganda’s politics and demography, hoping time alone will solve them. The case of Cote d’Ivore where natives have had a devastating civil war with foreign-born immigrants for control of the country should serve as a useful lesson for Uganda since Uganda’s economic and political troubles have involved foreigners for about one hundred years.
Since colonial days Uganda has pursued, developed and maintained a liberal labor immigration and refugee policy which has complicated its political economy and demography. The role of refugees, foreign workers and illegal immigrants should not be underestimated in Uganda’s population and political dynamics.
Immigrant workers from Rwanda and Burundi began to move into Uganda since the start of cash crop production in the early 1920s. Hutu worked and many settled permanently in cotton and coffee growing areas while Tutsi worked and many eventually settled in cattle herding areas of Lango, Teso, Buganda and Ankole etc. Workers from Kenya and Tanganyika joined them and many stayed. At one time an unusual demographic situation occurred in Buganda with males exceeding females because of male immigrant workers. The ratio reversed when male workers invited their spouses and children to join them in Buganda.
Uganda has also hosted other migrants in the form of refugees since the 1880s Sudan war when Nubian refugees came to Uganda. They were hired by Captain Lugard to assist his troops with ‘pacifying’ Bunyoro’s resistance to colonial rule. They remained in Uganda, kept a low profile and refrained from inter-marrying with Ugandans and sending their children to Christian schools. They felt neglected and got trapped in absolute poverty only to resurface with a vengeance amongst Amin’s troops which were boosted by Anyanya (poison) from southern Sudan after the civil war ended there. These foreign troops overthrew the Uganda government in 1971 and devastated Uganda’s economy and her people for the eight years years Amin was in power. One of the reasons advanced for the overthrow of the government was that Obote had isolated Uganda by chasing away workers from Kenya and Tanzania when he tried to solve Uganda’s labor problem in favor of Ugandan workers. It is estimated that during that time some 300,000 Ugandans lost their lives at the hands of Amin’s troops.
Post independence political turmoil in Rwanda and DR Congo also brought refugees to Uganda. The 1959 social revolution in Rwanda led to the defeat of Tutsi. Tutsi had been accused by the Belgian authority of being communists trying to overthrow the government and establish a minority government similar to the one established in South Africa in 1910. Many of these so-called communists came to Uganda and settled in then Kigezi and Ankole districts. Unlike in other countries these refugees were not kept in camps until conditions in their countries could allow them to return home. Instead, they were allowed to settle in the area or drift in the country and find places to settle, raise their families and tend to their livestock. Britain did not want her plans for granting Uganda’s independence in 1962 complicated by refugees coming in from Rwanda and DR Congo. Coincidently, Bahima in Ankole, who wanted to boost their numbers for political purposes against Bairu welcomed Tutsi refugees who are cousins. Kangaho, DP’s MP from Ankole encouraged British authorities to allow Tutsi to settle in Ankole arguing that there was enough land for human and animal occupancy. Consequently one third of Tutsi refugees settled with relatives in Ankole and Kigezi and raised population growth and density on land forcing Bakiga to move further north into Rukungiri, Ankole, Toro and Bunyoro. Other Tutsi refugees and some Bahima from Ankole (particularly from Nyabushozi area) spread with their cattle to other parts of Uganda especially in Buganda where they have become a formidable political force threatening to replace indigenous politicians, witness the political tremors in Mawokota and Sembabule.
Tutsi refugees who remained in Ankole were accused of involvement in politics and other sensitive activities. Government attempt in 1982 to solve the political problem of refugees in Ankole by returning Tutsi refugees back to Rwanda (the methods used were pretty rough) was resisted by Tutsi. Many opted to join Museveni’s guerilla war which devastated the Luwero Triangle leading to heavy destruction of life and infrastructure, the overthrow of the government in 1985 and installation of the NRM government in 1986.
After the war, attempts to make Rwandese refugees citizens of Uganda, and allow them to join Uganda’s armed forces raised protests and the project was dropped but to date the NRM government is believed to have continued to rely on Tutsi refugees at the expense of Ugandans in economic, public service and increasingly in politics.
Ugandans believe that the NRM government has allowed Tutsi refugees to enjoy important and strategic positions in all branches of government, which has raised political temperatures. Ugandans also feel that Tutsis from Rwanda, Burundi and eastern DRC are bused into Uganda to boost MRN political numbers or to occupy Uganda land. There are stories that in some areas of Ntungamo district Tutsi illegal immigrants outnumber indigenous populations. Complaints that refugees and illegal immigrants in Kampala City and possibly other urban areas have registered to vote for the ruling NRM party in 2011 elections need investigations and solutions before it is too late. The voter register needs to be audited thoroughly, verified and attested to by reliable sources.
On the issue of Uganda’s population explosion, some writers and commentators have been reporting scary statistics on Uganda’s imminent population explosion due to a high fertility rate of 6 children per woman. Yet Uganda’s recent history raises many questions on the causes of this rapid population growth. Since the 1970s Uganda has experienced political upheaval, devastating civil wars, and relentless HIV and AIDS pandemic and diseases of poverty leading to massive deaths including of women in their reproductive years.
For five years the Luwero Triangle was engulfed in a massive civil war which caused many deaths and displaced and scattered survivors in different places. Since 1986 the northern and eastern regions of Uganda have been at war. Many people in their reproductive years have lost their lives with survivors being herded into camps. Such refuge conditions and displacement camps do not favor high fertility.
Elsewhere in Uganda as in Luwero and northern and eastern Uganda, AIDS has decimated populations since the 1980s with many others succumbing to malaria and other diseases of poverty.
This leaves two factors that may explain Uganda’s rapid population growth; either demographic statistics are faulty or refugees and illegal immigrants have boosted Uganda’s population numbers.
Uganda has some of the best statisticians in Africa with vast knowledge and experience and a population secretariat whose duty, inter alia, is to collect population statistics, disaggregate and update them regularly. Yet writers and commentators on Uganda’s current and future population growth prefer statistics from the population reference bureau which raises questions like: Where does the bureau obtain its raw statistics as a basis for its work? Does the bureau disaggregate Uganda population growth and fertility rates by indigenous, refugee and illegal immigrant populations? Has the bureau provided a demographic map showing where fertility is highest and lowest for policy formulation and birth control purposes? If this information is available, it should be published widely. If it is not available it should be collected and published so Ugandans and the government can make informed decisions. Uganda’s relevant institutions should play a leading role in this vital exercise, with the ministry of finance, planning and economic development held accountable for omissions or commissions. This important exercise should not be left to journalists who focus on high fertility rate as the cause of Uganda’s population explosion; and birth control as the solution.
Not least, Uganda has also become home to refugees from Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya and increasingly Somalia who are not only adding to population growth but also according to reports boosting NRM support. It is possible that NRM ignores the issue of refugees and illegal immigrants because it stands to benefit. This inaction by government calls for researchers and reporters (Ugandans and foreigners) to fill the gap by highlighting the impact of refugees and illegal immigrants on Uganda’s population growth and political developments so government authorities can debate the issues and take appropriate action. Uganda policy makers who occasionally defend their inaction by claiming they did not know have now been alerted to the potential for demographic and political explosion arising in part from refugees and immigrants. Cote d’Ivoire’s experience should serve as a useful lesson.