Since the 1990s, Uganda under the leadership of President Museveni has been described by donors, foreign media and the United Nations as a ‘success story’ and a Washington Consensus ‘star performer’. When the National Resistance Movement (NRM) government came to power in 1986, Uganda had suffered fifteen years of political instability and economic collapse. There was excess capacity of idle labor, land and industries. The latter were performing at twenty percent of installed capacity. What Uganda needed was political stability and some foreign currency with which to import spare parts and inputs like hoes to rehabilitate the economy.
The government restored security in the southern half of the country and development partners provided funds after an agreement was signed with the International Monetary Fund in May 1987 making Uganda a ‘shock therapist’. With the blessing of good weather, excess capacity, resilient and hardworking people, the economy recorded rapid growth reaching 10 percent in mid-1990s albeit from a low base, inflation was tamed by reducing money in circulation, raising interest rates, balancing the budget largely by dismissing civil servants, introducing fees, eliminating some schools or classes and reducing teachers, charging fees for health services and reducing or eliminating subsidies. Because of these reforms, Uganda became a star performer and a successful ‘adjusting’ country.
The media, the donor community and the United Nations wrote rosy reports making Uganda a darling of the international community. The World Bank and the IMF concluded that since the economy was growing fast, poverty must also be receding as fast (Sebastian Mallaby 2004). Researchers pointed out that the liberalization of coffee prices had enabled farmers to earn more and to improve the quality of their lives by for example roofing their houses with corrugated iron sheets. They also pointed at the rapidly rising number of mobile users even in remote areas as an indicator of real development.
At face value, it was difficult to disagree with this rosy assessment in the southern half of the country. Because of the war, the northern and eastern half of Uganda did not benefit from this success story.
However, as time passed Ugandans began to complain about spreading and deepening poverty, food insecurity, unemployment, school drop out largely for lack of lunches, failing rainfall, frequent droughts and floods and re-emergence of diseases etc. To make ends meet, many Ugandans began to sell their meager assets such as land and livestock becoming poorer in the process. Male heads of households abandoned their families in search of jobs, in faraway places, that were unavailable and could not return home empty-handed.
Fresh research discovered that many households roofed their houses with iron sheets not because their incomes had improved, but because the free thatching grass used previously had disappeared because of massive de-vegetation since the launching of Amin’s ‘economic war’ which empowered Ugandans to bring under cultivation any piece of land that was idle including wetlands that contained thatch material such as papyrus. It was also discovered that for many users mobile phones had become a liability rather than an asset. Mobile phone owners spent much time travelling to and from town to charge their phones because there is no electricity in rural areas. It was also discovered that so much money was spent on air time that sacrifices had to be made somewhere including on reducing the quantity and quality of food consumption, school fees and medical expenses etc.
The diseases of poverty began to show their ugly faces. Infant mortality which is used to gauge the health of the economy rose from 75 to 78 per 1000 live births, the number of infants born underweight because their mothers are under-nourished rose to 12 percent, the number of under-five children undernourished hit 40 percent, the number of people going to bed hungry rose above 30 percent and Ugandans suffering from neurological abnormalities including insanity rose to over thirty percent in large part because they are eating a lot of maize and cassava without adequate dietary supplements. Unemployment rose rapidly with fifty percent of graduates out of work and some 80 percent of children are dropping out of school largely because they are hungry and the government has been unable or unwilling to provide school lunches.
Riots and demonstrations that have resulted in loss of lives and are rising in frequency and intensity in schools and in towns point to dark days ahead unless something is done quickly.
In spite of these revelations and increasing corruption, the donor community continues to praise Uganda as a success story. A British Minister is reported to have remarked early this year that the UK was proud of Uganda’s performance. Perhaps donors need to explain what indicators are being used.